The UFCgo record is now up to 28-15 following last week’s 2-1 record. The lesson learned: stay away from fights with a last-minute opponent switch. Here are the picks for what should be a great UFC 143 this weekend.

Nick Diaz (-185) vs. Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (+155)

Prediction: This has all the makings of a fight-of-the-year candidate. You’ve got two guys with similar styles (excellent stand-up and grappling) and similar records (27-5 for Condit vs. 26-7 for Diaz), both at the peak of their skills, fighting for the interim belt and a shot at the title against GSP. Neither guy has had cardio issues, so that shouldn’t be a factor in this fight. Both guys have incredible chins (Diaz has the lone TKO/KO loss of the two, and it came back in 2002). Picking a winner is tough, as they’re almost mirror images of each other, but I can’t wait to watch it.

Diaz dominated BJ Penn in his return to the UFC, and has now won 11 in a row, dating back to a doctor stoppage against KJ Noons in 2007 (which he avenged in 2010). Condit has won his last 4 in a row in impressive fashion, and has only 1 loss since joining the UFC – a split decision against Martin Kampmann. Diaz has only been to decision twice in his last 12 fights, and Condit has only had 3 decisions in his 32 fight career, showing that both guys push the pace and go for finishes.

I give a slight edge standing to Condit because he uses more diverse strikes, and a slight edge on the ground to Diaz. Condit is aggressive, almost to the point of recklessness, which could be the determining factor in this fight. He’ll either land a big blow with a technique that surprises Nick, or he’ll leave himself open to a shot that could cost him the fight.

This is one of those fights that could end in the first round or the last round, but I don’t expect these guys to let it go to the judges. I’ll take Diaz by TKO in the 4th round.

Fabricio Werdum (-150) vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson (+120)

Prediction: This fight should be a great test for both heavyweights. You’ve got Nelson, with a chin of stone, great power and a solid ground game against Werdum, arguably the best grappler in the heavyweight division who has shown improved stand-up lately. Whoever wins should take a big step towards title contention, and at 34 and 35 years old, neither guy has much time to waste.

Since losing to Junior Dos Santos by brutal KO in the 1^st round in late 2008, Werdum has gone on to win 3 of his last 4 fights. He quickly submitted journeyman Mike Kyle before taking a decision over Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, and submitting Fedor Emelianenko. Then, in June 2011 he lost an ugly decision to new UFC import and title contender Alistair Overeem. This will be only the 3^rd fight for Werdum since 2009 and his first since rejoining the UFC, so he could have some ring rust.

Roy Nelson has been a little busier, competing in 5 fights since joining the UFC in December 2009. He is 3-2 over that span, with tough decision losses against elite fighters Frank Mir and current champ Dos Santos. His wins were all by KO/TKO, and the victims were Brendan Schaub, Stefan Struve, and CroCop – not a bad group. Nelson has also started to transform his physique, becoming somewhat slimmer and stronger.

If Werdum can outwrestle Nelson I like his chances to either score a submission or ride out a decision, but if Nelson can keep it standing and can turn it into a war of attrition, his chin and hands give him the edge. I’ll take Nelson by 3rd round KO, with Werdum surprising the crowd by wearing down first.

Josh Koscheck (-250) vs. Mike Pierce (+200)

Prediction: This welterweight matchup features two tough-as-nails wrestlers who love to push the pace. Koscheck made his return from the eye injury he suffered in the loss to GSP against Matt Hughes, and he knocked out the legend inside of the 1^st round. Mike Pierce is coming off two split decisions – a loss to Johnny Hendricks followed by a win over Paul Bradley. Pierce is still searching for a signature win after coming up short against Hendricks and Fitch, but fights everyone close.

Koscheck meanwhile has demonstrated a willingness to fight on short notice, out of his weight class, and generally against all comers. This may have cost him against Paulo Thiago, but he still carries a great record of 16-5, with most of the losses coming against top talent (two to GSP and one to Thiago Alves).

Based on experience and athleticism you’d have to give the edge to Koscheck. He might be the best wrestler outside of GSP at 170, and Pierce has had some trouble with top wrestlers in the past. Also, the fact that Koscheck’s teammate and close friend Fitch holds a win over Pierce should give him an edge in preparing for this fight. Koscheck wins a decision.

Renan Barao (-255) vs. Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (+205)

Prediction: In what should be another entertaining fight on this card, we’ve got two aggressive 135 pounders squaring off. Jorgensen and Barao are the #5 and #7 ranked bantamweights in the world and the winner of this fight will no doubt be on the short list for a title shot. Despite the fact that Jorgensen is ranked above Barao, the line has Barao as about a 2.5 to 1 favorite.

The reasoning could be that Barao hasn’t lost since his first MMA fight back in 2005, and holds a record of 27-1. He’s coming off his most impressive victory to date – a beautiful 1^st round submission of Brad Pickett in England. Still only 24 years old, Renan showed an excellent balance of speed and power in both his stand-up and BJJ. Jorgensen on the other hand comes from a wrestling background, and throws power punches almost in the mold of a Koscheck. Jorgensen has won 7 of his last 8, with the lone loss coming against 135 pound champ Cruz in a hard-fought but clear decision a little over a year ago.

The stand-up should be fairly even, with Jorgensen’s power edge being offset by Barao’s diverse striking. Still, I expect Jorgensen to go back to his roots and take the fight to the mat. Young Guns has been submitted only once and that was back in 2006, so that doesn’t appear to be a major weakness in his game, but Barao might have the best BJJ he’s seen so far. If he can maintain top control and land some of his powerful ground and pound he should earn a W, but I don’t think it will be that easy. Barao is a handful, and I think he will be able to escape or sweep, even if he can’t score a submission off his back.

In the end, I think this will be a back and forth battle but Jorgensen rides a strong 1st round to pull of a narrow decision upset.

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (-280) vs. Clifford Starks (+220)

Prediction: Clifford Starks is an undefeated prospect (8-0, 1-0 UFC) who has been given the chance to test himself against dangerous veteran Ed Herman (19-8, 6-5 UFC). Herman’s record might be a bit deceiving though, as he has struggled with injuries for years. Since returning from a knee injury to Aaron Simpson in August 2009, Herman has looked at the top of his game in wins over Tim Credeur and Kyle Noke, putting together two dominant 1^st round victories.

Starks edged out fellow UFC newcomer Dustin Jacoby in his debut (Jacoby was just submitted in the 3^rd round by Chris Camozzi at UFC on Fox 2 in his second UFC fight), but this is a step up to a whole new level of competition for Jacoby. Herman wins by 1st round submission, and continues his run to rejuvenate his career.

Coming off a 4-0 week at UFC on FX, our running picks record is up to 26-14. This week we’ve got 3 main card fights to pick, and they feature some of the top guys in the middleweight and light heavyweight division. Should be a great card, so let’s get to the picks.

Rashad Evans (-210) vs. Phil Davis (+170)

Prediction: This will be Rashad’s 14th fight in the octagon, and he carries a record of 11-1-1 in his prior 13 fights. As a former champ, he’s pretty much seen it all, and his lone loss came against Machida in his first title defense, back in May 2009. Since that loss he has joined the Blackzillian camp and he looked extremely good in his win over Tito Ortiz back in August. Phil Davis brings a 9-0 record (5-0) UFC to the fight, with impressive wins over Little Nog and rising prospect Alexander Gustafsson. This will definitely be the biggest fight in his career though, and Rashad represents a significant step up in talent and experience.

This fight will come down to Rashad’s defensive wrestling and whether he can get back up if taken down. I give him the definite edge standing over Davis, so if he can avoid ending up on the losing side of a wrestling match, he should take the victory. That’s easier said than done, as evidenced by the fairly even line, but this is too much too fast for Davis. I see him losing a not-very-pretty fight, with Rashad mostly avoiding his takedowns and having enough success striking to win the fight. Rashad wins by decision.

Chael Sonnen (-400) vs. Michael Bisping (+300)

Prediction: Similar to Rashad, Bisping is another TUF champion with a bunch of fights in the UFC (this will be his 16th). Over that time he has compiled an excellent record of 13-3 and is currently on a 4 fight win streak… so you’re probably wondering why he’s the underdog in this fight. It comes down to strength of opponents. Bisping’s biggest wins have come over Matt Hammill (disputed decision victory), Jorge Rivera (disputed due to an illegal knee), and Chris Leben (decisive win, but back in 2008). Meanwhile, his 3 losses have come against his top opponents to date — Hendo, Rashad, and Wanderlei Silva.

Sonnen is another polarizing fighter, who was only minutes away from defeating Anderson Silva prior to getting caught in a triangle. Sonnen has a record of 26-11, and is 5-3 overall in the UFC — 4-2 since rejoining the organization in February 2009. Of Sonnen’s 11 losses, 8 have come by submission, including all 5 since 2005. Meanwhile Bisping has 4 wins by submission in his career, the last coming in 2005. Whew! In summary, Sonnen is a top wrestler with a distinct vulnerability for getting submitted. The question is, can Bisping get the job done.

Bisping may have the edge standing, but this fight shouldn’t be decided there so it’s somewhat irrelevant. Bisping hasn’t faced a wrestler of Sonnen’s caliber since Rashad in 2007 (Hendo made no attempt to wrestle him whatsoever), so it should only be a matter of time until Sonnen takes the fight to the ground. Provided Sonnen can maintain his position and work Bisping over with ground and pound as demonstrated in his fight against Marquardt, he should earn a one-sided decision. There’s always the chance that Bisping catches Sonnen in something off his back, but +300 odds aren’t quite enough for me to take that risk. Sonnen by decision.

Chris Weidman (-150) vs. Demian Maia (+120)

Prediction: In a fight somewhat similar to the headliner, we have an elite and experienced veteran at 185 in Maia facing off against an undefeated top prospect in Weidman. The difference is that in this fight, the prospect (Weidman) is the favorite. The 27 year old Weidman has a 7-0 record and won his first 3 fights in the UFC in 2011 with two submissions. Maia meanwhile has compiled a record of 15-3 (9-3 UFC), including a submission win over Chael Sonnen and losses to Anderson Silva for the title, and Mark Munoz in an entertaining war. His lone bad loss came against Marquardt, when he got KO’d in 22 seconds while attempting some sort of jumping keen to start the fight.

Here’s the thing about this fight — Weidman is a 2-time all-american wrestler, and is primarily a grappler. Maia is a 3rd degree BJJ blackbelt, 5 time BJJ world champion, and former ADCC world wrestling champion. So if you’re Weidman do you go to your strength, take Maia down and try to avoid getting caught? Or do you use your wrestling defensively and try to win a stand-up battle against Maia, who has shown steady improvement on his feet since his loss to Anderson Silva? Neither option sounds particularly enticing, does it?

I’d probably pick Maia to win this fight even if he was a slight favorite, but as an underdog I’m jumping on him. Weidman will keep things standing initially, but after Maia starts to outstrike him, he’ll revert to what he knows best and take Maia down. From there, I see Maia getting the sweep and securing the finish. Maia wins by 2nd round submission.

After going 2-3 on UFC 142 picks (thanks to the flukey DQ of Erick Silva and Johnson’s weight cutting drama) the UFCgo running record stands at 22-14. I’m going with shorter write-ups for tonight’s fight picks rather than the usual detailed analysis, because frankly I don’t have as much to say about most of these fights. Here goes:

Jim Miller (-180) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Prediction: Miller has 3 losses in his career, all by decision, and all to top contenders (Ben Henderson, Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar). Guillard on the other hand has been up and down over the course of his career. He looks incredible against strikers or low-tier fighters, but when he faces grapplers he tends to struggle (Diaz, Clementi, Stevenson, Neer, Lauzon, etc.)

Unfortunately for Guillard, Miller is a very strong grappler. I know Melvin switched camps after his loss to Lauzon in October, but find it hard to believe that he has become a great defensive wrestler in 3 months. Miller should win this fight unless he gets KO’d early, and that’s never happened to him in his career. Accordingly, I think this line should actually favor Miller more, and would jump on Miller to win by 2nd round submission.

Duane “Bang” Ludwig (-115) vs Josh “The Dentist” Neer (-115)

Prediction: This is the fight that’s giving me the most trouble. Maybe it’s because I’m a Neer fan (love his nickname and aggressive style) and I’m having trouble picking against him. Maybe it’s because both of these guys are talented journeyman who have been in out of the UFC and have more than 30 professional fights a piece. Maybe it’s because neither guy has won a big fight in a couple of years (unless you count Ludwig’s win over Amir Sadollah, which I don’t).

Let’s look at what we know — Neer has only been to 9 decisions in 43 career fights. He has won his last 5 fights, all outside the UFC. Ludwig has only been to 6 decisions in 32 career fights. He has won 2 in a row (in the UFC) after losing 2 in a row prior to that. Ludwig is the more technical fighter while Neer is the brawler. I think Neer is smart and experienced enough to avoid getting into a technical contest however, and expect him to press the pace, get inside and force Ludwig to fight in a very different way than he was able to against Sadollah.

Having previously disclosed my bias in this fight, I’m going to go with Neer by 3rd round TKO, but expect that it will be a very close and hopefully entertaining fight.

Mike “The Hulk” Easton (-400) vs. Jared Papazian (+300)

Prediction: I’ll just be honest here — all I know about Papazian is that he’s got a record of 14-6 against fighters I’ve never heard of before. The one guy I have heard of that he fought was Karen Darabedyan, and he got submitted by him in under 2 minutes. Easton on the other hand is an 11-1 prospect who trains with 135 pound champ Dominick Cruz and who looked good in his first UFC fight back in October. He also beat TUF 14 winner John Dodson, and another TUF 14 guy Josh Ferguson. Think I’ll go with Easton by 1st round guillotine.

Pat “HD” Barry (-175) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)

Prediction: For those who don’t know, Barry is a kickboxer and fan favorite, and Morecraft is a huge guy with a terrible tattoo on his gut. Morecraft is a grappler, and his lone win of note came over Sean McCorkle. Barry has an up-and-down record, but has faced better talent than Morecraft and with better results overall. An important note here is that Morecraft got KO’d by Barry’s teammate (Matt Mitrione) about 6 months ago, and didn’t look good at all in that fight. Barry no doubt has picked Mitrione’s brain and provided he is patient, should have no trouble TKO’ing Mr. Morecraft.

The problem is that Barry has a tendency to let it all hang out and put himself in danger rather than fighting with patience. Hopefully he’s learned from his loss to Kongo, and fights to his potential. Barry wins by 2nd round TKO.

With a running record of 20-11 here are the picks for UFC 142, the UFC’s second foray into Brazil.

Jose Aldo (-250) vs. Chad Mendes (+200)

Prior fights: This is basically a match-up of unbeaten fighters, as Aldo carries a record of 20-1 (with no losses since 2005) into this contest against the 11-0 Mendes, who began fighting in 2008. There’s no question that this is a step up in competition for the 26 year old Mendes, so we’ll see if he’s ready to become a champion.

Intangibles: Aldo is the hometown favorite, and also has been in big fights several times before. You’d have to give him the edge here.

Prediction: While Mendes is an excellent wrestler from a top camp, I’m not sure he brings anything Aldo hasn’t seen before (Mike Thomas Brown, Urijah Faber). Also, with Aldo bringing in Gray Maynard to help with his wrestling and takedown defense, you’ve got to like his chances at keeping the fight off the ground. Aldo by decision after 5 rounds of stand-up superiority.

Vitor Belfort (-120) vs. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (-110)

Prior fights: To me this is the most interesting fight on the card. You’ve got the veteran Belfort with a record of 20-9 matched up against the polarizing Johnson (10-3), who has seemingly limitless potential and appears much more comfortable at 185 than his usual 170. Both fighters have tremendous power and can finish opponents impressively with one strike. Vitor’s lone loss since 2006 came against Anderson Silva, via that crazy front kick to the face. Johnson’s lone loss since 2007 (sorry Kevin Burns, your win was an eye poke and doesn’t count) came against Koscheck in a somewhat disputed fight.

Intangibles: Johnson is 7 years younger than Belfort, and appears reinvigorated by his new camp (the Blackzillians). Belfort will be a huge hometown favorite, but his next fight has already been set (against Wanderlai Silva) as part of the Ultimate Fighter Brazil, so he may be looking beyond Johnson. Hmmm.

Prediction: While both fighters are extremely dangerous on their feet, Johnson has shown a willingness to take the fight to the ground in his last two contests. He’s an excellent wrestler, and if he can continue to mix that element in with his stand-up, Rumble is a handful for anyone.   Vitor has deadly hands and will be fighting in front of his fans, but Johnson’s length, quickness, and kicks make him a tough opponent. Also, Rumble has never been KO’d or TKO’s (see note about Kevin Burns above). Johnson will fight intelligently, wear Vitor down, and take him out. Johnson by 2nd round TKO in a slight upset.

Rousimar Palhares (-485) vs. Mike Massenzio (+385)

Prior fights: Judging purely from records, Palhares (13-3) and Massenzio (13-5) seem like a pretty even match-up. As the line indicates however, that’s not the case. Palhares is one of the nastiest BJJ practitioners out there, and is built like a tree trunk. His notable/recent losses (to Marquardt in a really strange fight, and Hendo by decision) are against top talent. Massenzio on the other hand is 3-3 since joining the UFC in 2008, and his best win was probably over Steve Cantwell. Edge: Palhares.

Intangibles: Palhares is crazy. Ok, that’s a bit strong… Palhares has acted super crazy several times in the past, and has a tendency to hold leg locks too long. That’s got to be intimidating for an opponent — especially when that opponent is flying to Brazil to fight on Palhares’ turf. Edge: Palhares.

Prediction: You can probably tell where this is headed. Palhares is just too good of a grappler to lose this fight. I see an early takedown followed by some beastly BJJ, ending in an early submission where hopefully Massenzio isn’t hurt, although with Palhares you never know. Palhares by painful looking 1st round submission.

Erick Silva (-485) vs. Carlo Prater (+385)

Prior fights: This fight is a case of a journeyman (Prater: 29-10-1) being brought in as an injury replacement to face the rising star (Silva: 13-1). Silva ended his first UFC fight against Luis Ramos in just 40 seconds at the first UFC in Brazil event (UFC 134) and has lone loss came by decision in 2006. That said, most of his wins have come in the Jungle Fight promotion, so the quality of some of his opponents is a bit suspect. Prater meanwhile has fought for pretty much every promotion out there, and against a wide range of competition. He carries a 4 submission win streak into this fight, but lost 4 of 5 prior to the streak. Still, if you look back a bit further, you see submission wins over highly regarded guys like Melvin Guillard and Carlos Condit. In short, he’s a solid grappler who has had an up and down career.

Intangibles: Despite both guys being from Brazil, Silva will be the fan favorite based on his dominant win at UFC 134 and the fact that he’s seen as the guy with more upside. Still, you’ve got to like Prater’s overall experience. This is a fight that I’d recommend staying away from. You never know what’s going to happen with injury replacements, as they sometimes bring a totally different style than the other fighter was training for, and it can be hard to get motivated against an opponent who can’t really do much for your status in the division.

Prediction: Per the note above, I don’t believe that the line for this fight justifies the risk for Silva. While he has earned the right to be the favorite, he shouldn’t be 5-1, so I’d avoid this one. That said, provided Silva can avoid Prater’s slick submission game, he should come away with a tougher-than-expected decision victory. Silva by decision.

Edson Barboza (-280) vs. Terry Etim (+220)

Prior fights: This is the second most exciting fight on the card in my opinion, and features a great match-up between two premier up-and-coming lightweights. Barboza, 25, is undefeated at 9-0 (3-0 UFC) while Etim, 26, is 15-3 (6-3 UFC). Barboza is coming off a split decision victory over Ross Pearson at UFC 134 in Brazil, while Etim is coming off a 17 second submission victory at UFC 138, his 4th submission of the night for the UFC. Etim is one of those guys who can look really incredible at times, and very vulnerable at others. He’s a true top prospect if he can become more consistent though.

Intangibles: Etim was coming off a 17 month layoff prior to his victory 2 months ago at UFC 138, but showed no ring rust. Barboza will be a definite crowd favorite, and as the guy leading off the main card should have strong support.

Prediction: This is another case where the line is tilted significantly beyond where it should be. Barboza probably deserves to be favored when you consider all factors, but I see this fight as a toss-up. Etim is probably the toughest guy Barboza has ever faced, and he’s coming in off a very close split decision victory over Ross Pearson. Etim has been in some battles and knows how to fight through adversity. I like his toughness to carry him to a gritty 3rd round win here, as he catches Barboza in a guillotine. Etim wins by submission in the 3rd round.

Happy holidays, etc. etc. Sorry for not getting the picks out sooner, but travel combined with Friday night fights have taken a toll. Current record on picks is 18-8, so we’ll try to keep the momentum going  through the end of the year here.

Alistair Overeem (-145) vs. Brock Lesnar (+115)

Prior fights: Overeem (35-11) brings a massive experience advantage into his fight with Brock (5-2) and is one of the few guys who actually has the size to match up with him. The flip-side here is that Brock’s fights have all been in the UFC, and against arguably tougher competition than the majority of Overeem’s fights. Overeem has been on a tear since losing several fights in 2006 and 2007 in Pride, although the only real name he’s beaten over that period is Werdum in a lackluster decision. Brock is coming off a loss to Cain Velasquez followed by a second surgery on his colon. In summary this is a really hard fight to pick based on their experience.

Intangibles: Overeem seems extremely confident and calm, while Brock appears to be very focused. Still, with this being Overeem’s first time fighting in the UFC he might have a bit of nerves — especially if the fans are squarely behind Brock.

Prediction: This is a classic striker vs. wrestler match-up, with both fighters having a significant advantage in there areas of expertise. The question is can Brock get the fight to the ground before Overeem hurts him, and then can he ground-and-pound his way to a victory. I’m going to go with Brock here, as I think he will be prepared to defend himself and limit Overeem’s openings on the feet. He should look to close the distance, take the fight to the ground and finish Overeem with strikes from the top in the 2nd round. Brock by 2nd round TKO.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-280) vs. Nate Diaz (+220)

Prior fights: What a great match-up. It’s hard to think of a guy who’s looked better than Cowboy lately (17-3 and 4-0 in the UFC), as he has put up dominating wins in his last 2 fights. Diaz (14-7) is as tough as they come though, and in his last fight against Gomi he looked as good as he ever has. That said, Diaz has lost 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 6, so although he’s dangerous he’s also a bit inconsistent.

Intangibles: Cerrone seems to be very prepared and confident, and he’ll also have a significant strength advantage. Fans should be split pretty evenly between Diaz and Cowboy, and that shouldn’t play much of a factor. Diaz was a pound over at the weigh-ins and had to step on the scale 3 times to make weight, but his cardio is so strong that fatigue should not be a factor.

Prediction: Two of the most entertaining fighters in the lightweight division squaring off makes for an awesome co-main event. This fight should have non-stop action and should take place all over the octagon. Diaz and Cowboy should be pretty evenly matched on the feet, but Cerrone has shown improved takedowns, and that’s the wildcard here. If he can mix some takedowns in with his striking, Cowboy will earn a tough decision over the always game Diaz.  One final note — I’m not a fan of this line as I think it should be much closer.

Jon Fitch (-230) vs. Johny Hendricks (+180)

Prior fights: Fitch (23-3-1) is coming off a draw against BJ Penn, a fight in which he actually got taken down a few times until BJ ran out of gas in the 3rd round. Otherwise his only non-victory since 2002 came against GSP over 3 years and 6 fights ago. Hendricks (11-1) has a lone loss to Rick Story, and comes in following 2 wins in a row. Hendricks’ footwork and striking looked extremely good in his win over Mike Pierce, and he feels ready to test himself against the upper tier at 170.

Intangibles: No matter what you personally think about him, ”Fitch is fighting? Time to get a beer…” is the way casual fans feel about Jon Fitch. Expect the crowd to be behind Hendricks, at least until they lose interest in the fight. One other point to consider is that this is Fitch’s first fight in 10 months after suffering an injury while preparing for a rematch with BJ, so he may have some ring rust. Hendricks meanwhile has stayed pretty active.

Prediction: This is an interesting match-up because Hendricks is a 2-time division 1 wrestling champ, so he should have the tools to defend Fitch’s takedowns. The key word here is “should” because MMA wrestling and collegiate wrestling are two different things (see St. Pierre, George). As much as it might be nice to see a changing of the guard at 170, it doesn’t seem like Hendricks will bring anything to the table that Fitch hasn’t already seen. I see Fitch grinding out a trademark victory that doesn’t win him any new fans. Fitch takes the decision.

Alexander Gustafsson (-325) vs. Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko (+250)

Prior fights: At 12-1, Gustafsson is one of the UFC’s top up-and-coming light heavyweights. None of Gustafsson’s fights have gone the distance, and his lone loss came against standout wrestler Phil Davis. The Janitor is at the other end of his career, at age 41 and with a record of 26-5. Matyushenko is trying to piece together one final contending run, and is currently coming off back-to-back wins by first round KO.

Intangibles: Gustafsson will be the fan favorite, although Matyushenko is so experienced he figures to be totally unaffected.

Prediction: The Janitor really is one of the most underrated fighters over the course of his career, as he has beat some of the top names in MMA while compiling an excellent record. Unfortunately most of those wins are 7+ years old, and Gustafsson has proven himself to be more than a flash in the pan over his 5 fights in the UFC. Alexander could certainly make a mistake and get caught by the savvy veteran, but if he uses his length and footwork as he has over his past few fights, you’ve got to like his chances to wear Matyushenko down and pick him apart. Gustafsson wins by TKO in the 3rd round.

Nam Phan (-230) vs. Jim “The Kid” Hettes (+180)

Prior fights: At 9-0 with 9 submissions (all in the 1st or 2nd round), Hettes is a legit young prospect in the 145 pound division. In his first fight in the UFC against Alex Caceres back in August, he was able to catch a rear naked choke to keep his streak alive. Nam (17-9) has become a crowd favorite because of his body punching style and the fact that people feel he was robbed of a decision in his first fight against Leonard Garcia. Still, when you consider that Phan has lost 2 of his last 3, 4 of his last 6, and 7 of his last 12, it’s hard to understand why he’s a -230 favorite here. His lone UFC win came in the rematch to Garcia, and Hettes is much more of a similar fighter to Mike Brown (who beat Phan handily) than Garcia.

Intangibles: Phan is more experienced having fought 3 times in the UFC, and Hettes may have some jitters being on the main card at year-end. Phan should also be the crowd favorite based on his recognition from the Ultimate Fighter show and his memorable battles with Garcia.

Prediction: Due to Hettes’ lack of experience, it is understandable that this fight could be seen as a toss-up, but putting Phan as a -230 favorite makes no sense. Nam should have the edge standing, but Hettes is the better grappler and he has yet to lose. Given the odds, Hettes is the smart bet here, and he could even keep his streak alive… we think so. Hettes wins by 2nd round submission.

After a lackluster 2-2 performance at the TUF 14 Finale with some borderline mainstream talent, we’re happy to finally have a legit event to predict this week. We feel pretty good about being 4-1 or better this week <knock on wood>, so proceed accordingly.

Jon “Bones” Jones (-550) vs. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (+375)

Prior fights: Jones is undefeated, as we don’t count what happened against Matt Hamill as a loss around these parts. What’s more, in his last 6 fights Bones has finished his opponent in impressive fashion. Machida is 17-2 and has lost 2 of his last 3 fights (to Shogun and Rampage, with the win coming over Couture).

Intangibles: Machida had the unbeaten mystique before but now that mantle hangs with Jones. It doesn’t seem that Machida is intimidated by him though, not that it will necessarily make a difference.

Prediction: Jones is hard to pick against as he looks like a steamroller and it’s hard to imagine anyone posing much of a challenge for him right now. There’s a chance Machida could catch Jones standing, but the most likely scenario would be a takedown by Bones followed by some brutal ground and pound. Jones wins by TKO early in the 3rd round.

Frank Mir (-285) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+225) 

Prior fights: In this match-up of former champions we have the 15-5 Mir against the 33-6-1 Big Nog. Both fighters have faced and defeated top talent, so we’ll focus on their more recent results. Mir has won 3 of his last 5, and two in a row. Prior to that he KO’d Big Nog himself in December 2008. Mir was stopped by powerhouse wrestlers in Carwin and Lesnar, but otherwise has fared well against strikers (CroCop, Nelson, Kongo) and grapplers. Since losing to Mir, Big Nog has gone 2-1 with a decision win over Couture, a KO loss to Cain Velasquez and most recently a KO win over Brendan Schaub. He has looked a bit washed up lately though, and there are definitely questions about how much he has left in the tank at age 35.

Intangibles: Mir has the benefit of having already defeated Big Nog, which has to help psychologically. Otherwise these are two serious veterans who should not be fazed by much going into the fight.

Prediction: If this was an “in his prime” match it would be a much tougher call, but lately Mir has simply looked like the better fighter. Big Nog is always a sentimental favorite, but Mir will be too much for him with superior striking and wrestling. I see a replay of their prior fight as Mir wins by TKO in the 2nd.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira (-200) vs. Tito Ortiz (+160)

Prior fights: Man, another match-up involving legends of the sport… this is a really great card. Tito comes in with a record of 16-9-1, having upset Bader and then taking a fight against Rashad on short notice (and only 1 month later), where he was stopped at the end of the 2nd round. He still put up a strong showing though, and demonstrated that he can still hang with the modern MMA fighters. Still, you can’t ignore that Tito lost 3 fights in a row prior to the win over Bader. Li’l Nog carries a record of 19-5, and is 2-2 in the UFC having lost his last 2 fights. He started his stint impressively with a KO win over Luiz Cane (who has since struggled), but then was dominated by wrestler Bader and Phil Davis en route to two decision losses.

Intangibles: Tito always seems to be a crowd favorite, so I’d expect to see the fans on his side here.

Prediction: It would seem that Li’l Nog’s weakness is wrestlers, and that’s obviously Tito’s strength. Minotoro is the superior striker, but Tito has shown he can take a shot and keep coming, so as long as he’s able to get the fight to the ground I like him his chances. Tito pulls off the upset, as he grinds Minotoro on the ground and takes the decision.

Brian Ebersole (-115) vs. Claude Patrick (-115)

Prior fights: Ebersole, a veteran of over 60 MMA fights (48-14-1) came into the UFC as a replacement and upset Chris Lytle. Then he dominated Dennis Hallman and finished him in the first round — all while fighting with his chest hair shaved into an arrow. Ebersole has been up and down, but since 2007 he has only lost once, and that was to 185 pound Bellator champ Hector Lombard in 2008. Patrick is less experienced at 14-1, but has won all 3 of his fights in the UFC (the biggest over Daniel Roberts in April) and has earned a step up in competition.

Intangibles: Patrick is the hometown boy and should have the crowd behind him, although Ebersole has picked up a few fans with his quirky fight style and chest “hairrow”. I’d give a slight edge to Patrick here.

Prediction: This is a somewhat tough call because Patrick is still relatively untested, but Ebersole has looked very good in his last two fights. Therefore, at even odds I like Ebersole to win by decision.

Mark “The Machine” Hominick (-500) vs. Chan Sung “The Korean Zombie” Jung (+350)

Prior fights: In this match-up of fighters with great nicknames, Hominick is the big favorite with a record of 20-9. The Machine is coming off a decision loss to Aldo back in April where he gave him all he could handle, and was actually coming on strong in the final round. Prior to that, Hominick had won 5 fights in a row with 4 finishes. The Korean Zombie (11-3) is most known for his epic battle with Leonard Garcia in 2010, that likely took a couple of years off his life. He followed that fight up by nearly getting decapitated by George Roop, and then avenging his loss to Garcia with a nasty twister submission.

Intangibles: Hominick will be the hometown favorite and should have the crowd squarely behind him here.

Prediction: As evidenced by the line, everything points to Hominick’s stellar striking technique leading him to a victory over Jung. The Korean Zombie can certainly take a punch, but I think that the Machine will hurt him, get him to the ground and sub him. Hominick wins by submission in the 2nd period.

Our record so far on picks is 13-4, and in advance of tomorrow night’s Spike TV card, here are the official UFCgo predictions:

Michael “The Count” Bisping (-170) vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller (+140)

Prior fights: This is quite an interesting match-up between two MMA veterans, with Mayhem sporting a 23-7 record overall and Bisping at 21-3. Despite the strong records, both guys have some red flags however. For Bisping, he has yet to win against a top opponent in the UFC and is coming off a disputed victory over Jorge Rivera in February. Meanwhile, Mayhem hasn’t fought in over a year, and hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2005. That isn’t to say he hasn’t been busy however, fighting solid opponents in Strikeforce and Dream. It’s also hard to pinpoint his best win — maybe over Tim Kennedy? Honestly his best performance may have been narrowly losing to Jake Shields. Bisping’s best win was probably 3 years ago against Leben. You’d have to give the slight edge to Bisping, but the reality is neither guy has really proven himself to be elite thus far.

Intangibles: Mayhem is significantly more popular, and at the weigh-ins Bisping went as far as cussing at the audience and giving them the finger. Oh yeah, he also came in slightly over weight, so I can’t imagine Dana is going to be too pleased with his performance so far. Mayhem seems to have won whatever mind games go on during the filming of TUF, and Bisping just generally seems angry. The crowd should definitely be pro-Miller, and in a 5 round fight that could make a difference, or cause Bisping to do something dumb and get penalized a point.

Prediction: This is another tough one to call. Bisping deserves to be the favorite based on his UFC experience and slight size advantage, but Mayhem might be the better fighter standing and on the ground. Then again, Miller could find himself overwhelmed and on the wrong end of an early KO if he shows no respect for Bisping’s striking. Mayhem is smart though, and has had a solid camp with Munoz, so I think he’ll tire Bisping out, and catch him in a late round submission. Mayhem wins by submission in the 4th round.

Diego Brandao (-370) vs. Dennis “The Menace” Bermudez (+280)

Prior fights: Brandao (13-7) comes in the heavy favorite over Bermudez (7-2), and much of that is likely based on the reputation for knockouts that Diego developed on TUF 14. The downside to that is we didn’t get a chance to see how Diego will hold up after 5+ minutes in the cage. Bermudez was no slouch himself however, and he showed that he’s a strong wrestler capable of finishing his opponents. Neither fighter has really beaten anyone of note, so looking at their resumes isn’t particularly productive.

Intangibles: Diego seems to be the fan favorite from TUF 14, so I’d imagine the crowd will be behind him. He also trains with a much better camp (Greg Jackson) and you would think he’s made more progress since TUF ended.

Prediction: This fight comes down to Diego’s takedown defense, and I just can’t imagine that Greg Jackson wouldn’t have him ready to stop a shot. The only way I can see Diego losing is if he comes out crazy aggressive, gasses early and Bermudez is able to control him or sub him on the ground. That’s possible but Diego just seems too motivated to blow it after coming this far, so the pick is Diego by 1st round TKO.

T.J. Dillashaw (-225) vs. John “The Magician” Dodson (+175)

Prior fights: This should be a great fight, and it features two guys from great camps. Dillashaw is a 4-0 prospect from Team Alpha Male who fights in their typical style — dominating wrestling and ground and pound.  Although undefeated, he has yet to face top competition. Dodson (11-5) is undersized for the 135 pound weight division as he usually fights at 125, but he has a diverse skill set and is extremely quick. He’s also a Jackson MMA fighter, so you can imagine he’ll come in with a solid strategy.

Intangibles: Dillashaw was accused of dodging Dodson on TUF 14, while Dodson admitted to ratting out the match-ups to the opposing team. Basically neither guy was very popular, so it will be interesting to see who the crowd gets behind.

Prediction: Dillashaw’s superior size, conditioning, and camp (Team Alpha Male is tough to beat for little guys) lead me to believe that he’ll be able to take down and control Dodson. Dodson could outstrike him and mostly avoid the takedowns, but I think he’s just giving up too much weight here and will get worn down. Dillashaw earns the decision.

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (-340) vs. Yves “Thugjitsu Master” Edwards (+260)

Prior fights: This is a classic match-up of wiley veteran against up-and-coming prospect. At 12-2, Ferguson is the TUF 13 winner, and is coming off 5 wins in a row by KO/TKO dating back to 2009. Most recently, he broke Aaron Riley’s jaw in the 1st round of their September fight. The 35 year old Edwards will be stepping in for his 60th fight, sporting a record of 41-17-1, including wins over Hermes Franca, Josh Thomson and many more. He has won 3 of his last 4 in the UFC, but the loss was a highlight reel KO by Sam Stout.

Intangibles: Hard to say who the fans will lean towards here. Ferguson is on a roll and likely has more of the newer MMA fans on his side, while some of the longer-term fans of the sport would probably like to see the Thugjitsu Master continue his comeback. Shouldn’t play much of a factor.

Prediction: Similar to the Diego/Bermudez fight, the line seems to be tilted a bit too far in the direction of El Cucuy, but he still deserves to be the favorite here. With his crisp striking and Edwards’ suspect chin, a Ferguson TKO is the most likely outcome, but Edwards is the more diverse striker with an array of kicks and back-fists in his arsenal. Ultimately Ferguson’s straight punches will be more effective, and he will use them to finish the fight and keep his streak alive. Ferguson wins by TKO in the 2nd round.

After going 2-0 with the predictions from UFC on Fox, we’ve got a 10-2 overall record on picking fights. UFC 139 has a number of very close match-ups as evidenced by the odds, but we’ll do our best to keep the ball rolling and calling the fights correctly. Good luck, and thanks for reading!

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-140) vs. Dan Henderson (+110)

Prior fights: Hendo (28-8) makes his return to the UFC’s 205 pound division against perennial contender Shogun (20-5). Dan started his brief tour in Strikeforce with a decision loss to Jake Shields, but followed that up with 3 straight wins including a TKO over Fedor.  It’s worth mentioning that Hendo had Shields badly hurt in the 1^st round of their fight and likely punched himself out going for the finish. Prior to leaving the UFC for Strikeforce, Hendo KO’d Bisping, and beat Rich Franklin and Palhares after losing his title shot against Anderson Silva. Meanwhile Shogun is 4-3 since coming to the UFC, with losses to Forrest Griffin and Machida (both of which he subsequently avenged) and then a decisive loss to Jon Jones. Both Shogun and Hendo are former champions and deadly when they’re on, but lately they have lacked consistency.

Intangibles: Hendo is about 11 years older than Shogun, and both guys have had conditioning issues in the past, although you’d have to say Shogun’s cardio is more suspect. This is a 5 round fight, so if it goes into deep rounds it should favor Hendo, and with the fight taking place in San Jose the crowd will be behind him as well.

Prediction: If Hendo decides to stand and trade looking for his trademark big right hand, anything could happen. However if he mixes up his boxing with takedowns and ground and pound, he should be able to wear Shogun down and TKO him. Taking into consideration that Hendo has never been KO’d in his career and that this is a 5 round fight, I think he will eventually wear Shogun down and finish him, so the pick is Hendo by TKO in the 4th round.

Cung Le (-145) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+115)

Prior fights: This is another fight featuring two veteran warriors. At 39, Le is a former kickboxing champion with a 7-1 record in MMA against mostly weak competition. Wanderlei, 35, is much more experienced with a record of 33-11-1, but is just 2-4 since returning to the UFC in 2007. Most recently, Silva was KO’d by Chris Leben in 27 seconds. Still, prior to that fight he won a decision against Bisping, who is considered by many to be a top 15 fighter at 185.

Intangibles: Le will be the hometown fighter, but Silva is such a sentimental fan favorite from his Pride days that he should have the crowd behind him… or at least the old-school MMA fans in attendance. Even so, Silva’s chin is definitely suspect at this stage of his career, and all the retirement talk (including from Dana White) has to be in the back of his mind somewhere.

Prediction: Le is the much more technical striker and despite being 4 years older, has taken a lot less damage over the years. Wanderlei always has a puncher’s chance, but this doesn’t seem like a great match-up for his brawling style. Le takes a TKO victory in the 1st round, and hopefully Silva hangs up his gloves before he suffers any more blows to the head.

Urijah Faber (-250) vs. Brian Bowles (+195)

Prior fights: This is a very intriguing match-up at 135 between former champs Faber and Bowles. Bowles is 10-1 (9 TKOs or submissions), with his lone loss coming against Dominick Cruz about 18 months ago. Bowles had to quit after the 2^nd round due to a broken hand, but he was behind in the fight anyway. Faber is 25-5, but 4-4 in his last 8 fights with the wins coming over mid-level talent. Because he’s so marketable the UFC keeps pushing him up the ladder, and giving him every chance to compete for the belt. In July he lost a hard-fought decision to Cruz, who outworked him and controlled the fight.

Intangibles: Faber will definitely have hometown advantage here, and is the more experienced fighter. Bowles has recovered from his hand injury but told his corner that he thought he broke it again during his last fight, so it seems to still be on his mind. That could hold him back from throwing his right hand with everything he’s got against Faber.

Prediction: If you ask me the odds here should be a lot closer, which makes Bowles a tempting pick. It’s tough counting out Faber though, as he should have the strength advantage and has a ton of heart. This will be a close fight if Bowles can keep things standing, but I’ll take Faber by decision.

Rick Story (-145) vs. Martin Kampmann (+115)

Prior fights: Story is 13-4 overall, and 6-2 in the UFC. He was actually riding a 6 fight win streak and moving towards a contender position until losing to last minute replacement Charlie Brenneman in June. Story has defeated Thiago Alves and Johnny Hendricks in the last year, so he’s definitely a top-tier 170 pounder. Kampmann meanwhile has compiled a record of 17-5 and is coming off 2 very close decision losses that could have gone either way to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields. His one bad loss since dropping to 170 came against Paul Daley, who TKO’d him in the 1^st round.  Martin’s best victories have been wins over Carlos Condit and Paulo Thiago.

Intangibles: Both fighters are coming off losses and looking to re-establish themselves in the upper echelon at 170. Neither lack for confidence though, so that shouldn’t be a factor.

Prediction: Another really even matchup. Kampmann’s striking could lead him to victory, but Story’s combined wrestling and striking could enable him to outwork Kampmann and get a tough win. It’ll be close, but Story wins a decision in a war.

Kyle Kingsbury (-150) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+120)

Prior fights: Kingsbury is 11-2 and riding a 4 fight win streak in the UFC after an initial loss to Tom Lawlor. Kingsbury has shown a solid all-around game, with good striking, athleticism and wrestling. Stephan Bonnar is an MMA legend thanks to his first battle with Forrest Griffin, and has compiled a record of 13-7, with all of his losses but 1 to UFC champions (Soszynski, stoppage due to cut that Bonnar later avenged). Bonnar has won 2 in a row, and should be a good test for Kingsbury due to his experience.

Intangibles: Stephan is always a fan favorite, and seems to get stronger the more damage he takes. That said, he hasn’t fought in almost a year due to injuries and may have some ring rust.  In Kingsbury’s last fight against Fabio Maldonado he showed a lot of heart as he was getting nailed with tough body shots, but still pulled through to get the win. Should be an entertaining fight as neither guy has any quit in him and they both like to push the action.

Prediction: Kingsbury has the edge in wrestling, so if he can take the fight to the ground and avoid kimuras and sweeps he should be able to control Bonnar. Stephan is dangerous off his back and hard to hold down though, so there’s a good chance that striking will decide the fight. This should be a back and forth battle, with Kingsbury getting out to an early lead and Bonnar streaking back late and swinging for the fences. This could end with Kingsbury holding on for a decision, but I’ll go with the upset and see Bonnar scoring a 3rd round TKO.